Gambusinos vs Santos basketball prediction

LNBP
Gambusinos
vs
Santos
Projected score
84-80
Home61%
Away39%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Gambusinos vs Santos?

Basketball: Gambusinos vs Santos (LNBP). Projected 84-80. Gambusinos is favoured at 61%. Our projected total is 164 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Gambusinos by 4Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginGambusinosSantos
Wins61%39%
By 6+46%26%
By 11+31%15%
By 16+19%8%
By 21+11%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Gambusinos

Season record
7-11
Points per game
76.8
Points allowed
80.8
Rest
4 d
  1. W86-74Abejas
  2. W87-83Abejas
  3. L75-85Lobos Plateados
  4. L65-79Lobos Plateados
  5. W87-84Freseros de Irapuato

Santos

Season record
6-12
Points per game
81.9
Points allowed
89.6
Rest
4 d
  1. L74-103Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  2. L89-101Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  3. W95-82Diablos Rojos
  4. L87-97Diablos Rojos
  5. L94-102Dorados

Head to head

  1. Jul 19, 25Santos90Gambusinos96
  2. Jul 18, 25Santos100Gambusinos86

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology