Dorados vs El Calor de Cancun basketball prediction

LNBP
Dorados
vs
El Calor de Cancun
Projected score
86-81
Home65%
Away35%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Dorados vs El Calor de Cancun?

Basketball: Dorados vs El Calor de Cancun (LNBP). Projected 86-81. Dorados is favoured at 65%. Our projected total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Dorados by 5Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginDoradosEl Calor de Cancun
Wins65%35%
By 6+50%22%
By 11+35%13%
By 16+22%7%
By 21+13%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Dorados

Season record
11-7
Points per game
85.4
Points allowed
83.3
Rest
4 d
  1. L83-85Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  2. W86-79Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  3. L82-92Mineros
  4. W95-71Mineros
  5. W102-94Santos

El Calor de Cancun

Season record
5-13
Points per game
81.1
Points allowed
86.9
Rest
4 d
  1. L82-86Panteras
  2. W103-88Panteras
  3. L86-89Soles
  4. L75-102Soles
  5. L79-88Astros

Head to head

  1. Sep 10, 25Dorados83El Calor de Cancun77
  2. Sep 9, 25Dorados90El Calor de Cancun92
  3. Sep 19, 24El Calor de Cancun90Dorados71
  4. Sep 18, 24El Calor de Cancun63Dorados72

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology