Valdivia vs Ancud basketball prediction

LNBFull time
Valdivia
89:76
Ancud
Projected score
88-75
Home84%
Away16%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Valdivia vs Ancud?

Basketball: Valdivia vs Ancud (LNB). Projected 88-75. Valdivia is favoured at 84%. Our projected total is 163 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Valdivia by 13Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginValdiviaAncud
Wins84%16%
By 6+72%9%
By 11+57%4%
By 16+41%2%
By 21+27%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Valdivia

Season record
24-8
Points per game
86.4
Points allowed
75.4
Rest
0 dback-to-back
  1. W89-76Ancud
  2. W83-82Espanol Osorno
  3. W90-58CD Las Ánimas
  4. W96-69CD Puerto Varas
  5. W80-74Puerto Montt

Ancud

Season record
11-17
Points per game
81.4
Points allowed
83.7
Rest
0 dback-to-back
  1. L76-89Valdivia
  2. L66-88Puerto Montt
  3. W82-71Naviera Ulloa
  4. W86-82CD Puerto Varas
  5. W87-76CD Las Ánimas

Head to head

  1. Sep 14, 26Valdivia89Ancud76
  2. Aug 3, 26Ancud64Valdivia86
  3. Jul 13, 26Valdivia97Ancud78
  4. Apr 20, 26Valdivia100Ancud86
  5. Mar 29, 26Ancud90Valdivia80

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

Final, including overtimeValdivia 89, Ancud 76winner call correct

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology